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South Sudan

AFTER five decades of guerilla struggle and 2 million lives lost, the flags are flapping proudly in the world's newest capital. The new national anthem is blasting all over town. People are toasting oversize bottles of White Bull beer. There is dancing in the streets.
''Free at Last'' reads a countdown clock.
But from the moment it declares independence today, the Republic of South Sudan, the world's newest country and Africa's 54th state, will take its place at the bottom of the developing world.
A majority of its people live on less than a dollar a day. A 15-year-old girl has a higher chance of dying in childbirth than she does of finishing primary school. More than 10 per cent of children do not make it to their fifth birthday. About three-quarters of adults cannot read. Only 1 per cent of households have a bank account.
Beyond that, the nation faces several serious insurrections within its own sprawling territory and hostilities with Sudan, its former nemesis to the north.
So many people here embody the distance travelled and the hopes to come. James Aguto, a former child soldier and longtime guerilla fighter, now delivers babies. Mr Aguto is a newly minted clinical officer working in a government hospital, and his journey from taking life to sustaining it makes him an apt symbol for the transition this country is trying to make.
''There was one night I delivered six babies, six babies in one night!'' he said. ''I was so happy. I was making development here. I was showing that I had skills.''
He now wants to be a doctor. ''I have that spirit,'' he said.
The nation will certainly need it. More than 2300 people have been killed in ethnic and rebel violence this year, with at least a half-dozen rebel groups, some with thousands of fighters, prowling the bush, attacking government soldiers, terrorising civilians, stealing cattle - and even children.
The hospital where Mr Aguto works is a case in point. In one bed lies a thin young man with a huge cast on his leg.
''Abyei,'' the man grunted, referring to the disputed area on the border of Sudan and South Sudan that is claimed by both sides. It is considered one of the many potential trouble spots that could plunge this region back into war. He was shot there in May, when the Sudanese army invaded.
A major undercurrent is the fight for the oil that lies near the north-south border - oil that South Sudan gains and Khartoum loses - though for now South Sudan's crude can reach the world's markets only by moving through Sudan's pipelines.
Despite the south's oil wealth, the region has only about 350 kilometres of paved road.
In an advisory sent out this week for the independence celebration, the government reminded incoming guests that the capital Juba doesn't have any credit-card processing machines.
A fresh force of international peacekeepers was expected to be agreed on last night to protect South Sudan.
The UN Security Council was to vote on sending up to 7000 armed blue berets to South Sudan. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has recommended that the new mission should focus on protecting civilians - with force if necessary - and on reforms to the police, army and justice systems. There are fears that the world's 193rd country will be unable to adequately police its territory, guard its borders or protect its 8 million citizens.
Sudan's majority-Christian south fought its majority-Muslim north for 38 of its 54 years of independence from Britain. . The hangover of that war is almost a million guns, mostly in civilian hands. The southern army, born from the rebel forces, is bloated with troops and drains as much as 60 per cent of South Sudan's budget.
One diplomat in Juba quipped that it was, ''in essence, the state's welfare system''. The police force, provincial administration, courts and tax systems are stumbling at best, raising the risk of widening public anger among a population expecting an instant windfall from independence.
''We need to be modest in managing the expectations of what South Sudan can achieve, and how quickly,'' said George Conway, the deputy head of the UN Development Program's office in Juba.
In reality, the Republic of South Sudan will, from its first days, easily fulfil most requirements of a failed state.

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